Welcome to Curveball. On today’s blog, we will go over everything that has happened in the hot stove since I last wrote. We will also go over my Opening Day starting lineup for the Mets and the starting rotation for 2023. I also share my way too early Mets awards predictions for this upcoming season. This is Curveball: A New York Mets Blog.
Hello everyone. I am Caden Philip, and I so excited to write this blog so let’s get in to it.
Let’s recap everything that has happened since the Mets signed Kodai Senga on Sunday. On Monday, (in a three team deal) the Braves traded all-star catcher/DH William Contreras to the Athletics and catcher Manny Pina to the Brewers, while they got a gold glove catcher in Sean Murphy. Murphy was 4th in the AL ROY voting in 2020 and was voted 22nd in the AL MVP race this year with the A's. Also on Monday, former Mets pitcher Chris Bassitt, signed a 3-year $66 million deal with the Blue Jays. The all-star had 3.42 ERA last season. Yesterday, the Giants made a huge signing, bringing superstar SS Carlos Correa to the bay area on a 13-year $350 million deal. Correa, best know for playing on the Houston Astros during their cheating scandal, has had a multitude of successes in the big leagues getting named the AL Rookie of the Year in 2015 and he has been selected to two All-Star games. Lastly, Noah Syndergaard signed with Dodgers on a 1-year deal.
The Mets have made a lot a moves and changes after they lost their Cy-Young, Jacob deGrom, to the Rangers. Here is what I would have the starting rotation look like in 2023.
1. Justin Verlander: 1.75 ERA in 2022 (AL CY YOUNG)
2. Max Scherzer: 2.29 ERA in 2022
3. Kodai Senga: 1.94 ERA in Japan (2022)
4. Jose Quintana: 2.99 ERA in 2022
5. David Peterson: 3.83 ERA in 2022.
The way I see things, ERA is the stat that matters the most with pitchers. In baseball, you need to score more runs than your opponent to win the game. You might be wondering, why isn’t Carlos Carrasco on this list? He had a worse ERA than David Peterson in 2022, they both had the same WHIP with a 1.33, they also had similar workloads with Carrasco throwing only 46.1 more innings than Peterson. The Mets have more invested in Peterson because he was a first round pick and I think he gives them the best chance to win.
Here is my starting lineup for the Mets in 2023
1. CF Brandon Nimmo
2. RF Starling Marte
3. SS Francisco Lindor
4. 1B Pete Alonso
5. 2B Jeff McNeil
6. DH J.D. Martinez/ Michael Conforto
7. LF Mark Canha
8. C Francisco Alvarez
9. 3B Eduardo Escobar
BENCH
Vogelbach
Narvaez
Guillorme
Baty
I think the Mets will add an outfielder/DH along the likes of Michael Conforto or J.D. Martinez. Assuming the roster does not change, I would start Baty at DH over Daniel Vogelbach because Baty can run the bases, he is younger, has more upside, he is a top 20 prospect in the MLB, and the Mets have more invested in him because he was a first-round pick. I have Baty on the bench to start the season, but I see him getting plenty of opportunities at 3rd base and DH throughout the year, even if they sign Conforto or Martinez.
There are a few guys that are not on this roster. I think the Mets will DFA Darin Ruf, trade James McCann, and Tomas Nido will be sent to AAA. The Rangers have showed interest in McCann and with the addition of Omar Narvaez, there is no room for either player on the active roster.
Here are my awards for the Mets.
Rookie of the Year: SP Kodai Senga
While I think Alvarez and Baty will give him a run for his money, Senga will win this award. While there is some risk because he came for Japan, he was nasty last year having a 1.94 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP. His fastball can get as high as 102 MPH and he has a nasty “Ghost Fork”. It has downwards movement and they call it the “Ghost Fork” because it kind of disappears when he throws it. This pitch sits at 96 MPH. I suggest watching the Pitching Ninja on YouTube to see an overlay of Senga’s Fastball and Ghost Fork. It comes from the same release point and the “Ghost Fork” just drops at 2/3 of the way through. I can’t wait to watch Senga in 2023
Cy Young: Justin Verlander
Verlander was the AL Cy Young in 2022 and I think he will be the best pitcher on the Mets in 2023. He only gets better with age. His ERA with Tigers (2005-2017) was 3.49. His ERA with the Astros (2017-2022) is a whole point plus lower at 2.26. We will see how Verlander can go in 2023 with the Mets.
MVP: 1B Pete Alonso
I could have chosen Verlander for this award but I decided to change it up, because I chose him for Cy Young. Alonso is coming of a season where had a career best .271 AVG, tied for the league lead with 131 RBI, and had his second 40 HR season in his 4-year career. He could possibly be playing for a massive extension, so Alonso could be a dark horse candidate for the NL MVP.
That will do it for this blog. Please be on the look out for any future blogs. LET’S GO METS!